How Employment Experts Assess Future Career Prospects and Earnings

Future loss of earnings can be one of the more uncertain aspects of an employment-related financial claim. Unlike past earnings, future loss requires consideration of what may have happened after the relevant employment event and what the claimant's future earnings might otherwise have been.

An employment loss expert might be instructed to analyse the financial aspects of these questions where specialist evidence is considered appropriate. This can involve reviewing employment history, remuneration, career progression, subsequent employment and other evidence relevant to the calculation.

This guide explains some of the factors an employment expert may consider when assessing future career prospects and earnings.

What Do Future Career Prospects Mean in an Employment Loss Calculation?

Future career prospects refer to the potential development of a person's employment and earnings over the period relevant to a claim.

Depending on the circumstances, this may involve consideration of:

• Previous employment history
• Earnings history
• Role and level of seniority
• Career progression
• Promotion history
• Bonus or commission arrangements
• Qualifications and professional experience
• Subsequent employment
• Industry or occupation
• Evidence concerning likely future employment

The purpose is not to predict the future with certainty. Where future loss is being assessed, the available evidence may instead be used to develop appropriate assumptions for the financial calculation.

Why Can Future Earnings Be Difficult to Assess?

Past earnings can often be established from documentary evidence such as payslips, P60s and employment records. Future earnings are different because they depend on events that have not yet occurred.

For example, a calculation may need to consider whether a claimant would have:

• Remained in the same role
• Received an increase in salary
• Progressed to a more senior position
• Received bonuses or commission
• Changed employer
• Continued working for a particular period
• Experienced a period of unemployment
• Retired at a particular time

The evidence available may support some assumptions more strongly than others.

An employment loss expert may therefore distinguish between established financial information and assumptions used to assess potential future loss.

What Evidence May an Employment Expert Consider?

The information required will depend on the circumstances and the scope of the instruction.

Employment History

An expert may review the claimant's employment history to understand how their earnings and roles have developed over time.

Relevant information may include:

• Previous roles
• Length of service
• Changes in salary
• Promotions
• Changes of employer
• Periods of unemployment
• Changes in working arrangements

A longer employment history may provide relevant context, although past progression does not necessarily establish what would have happened in the future.

Earnings History

Historical earnings can provide a starting point for considering future earnings.

Depending on the circumstances, the expert may review:

• Basic salary
• Overtime
• Bonuses
• Commission
• Allowances
• Benefits
• Other contractual or recurring remuneration

The relevance and reliability of historical earnings will depend on the evidence available and the nature of the remuneration.

Promotion and Career Progression

Where future progression is relevant, an expert may consider evidence concerning previous promotions and changes in responsibility.

This could include:

• Previous promotions
• Changes in job title
• Increases in responsibility
• Salary increases following promotion
• Internal career pathways
• Evidence concerning progression within the employer

A history of promotion may be relevant evidence, but it does not necessarily establish that a further promotion would have occurred.

Any assumption about future progression should therefore be considered alongside the wider evidence.

How Is Future Career Progression Assessed?

Future career progression is generally more uncertain than establishing historical earnings.

An expert may consider several sources of evidence rather than relying on a single indicator.

Previous Career Development

The claimant's previous career development may provide context.

For example, evidence of progression in responsibility or remuneration may be relevant when considering a proposed future earnings scenario.

However, historical progression should not automatically be treated as evidence that the same pattern would have continued indefinitely.

Qualifications and Experience

Professional qualifications, technical experience and the nature of the claimant's occupation may also be relevant.

The significance of these factors will vary depending on the individual circumstances.

For example, qualifications may affect the types of roles available to a claimant, while experience may be relevant to the level of employment for which they could reasonably be considered.

Evidence From the Employer

Where available, evidence from the employer may provide information about the claimant's role, career pathway or remuneration arrangements.

Relevant material might include:

• Employment contracts
• Job descriptions
• Promotion records
• Salary reviews
• Organisational information
• Bonus arrangements
• Evidence relating to career progression

The weight that can be given to particular evidence will depend on its nature and relevance to the issues being assessed.

How Can Subsequent Employment Affect the Assessment?

A claimant may have obtained alternative employment after leaving the relevant role.

Subsequent employment can provide evidence about the claimant's actual earnings and employment position. It may also be relevant when considering future loss.

An assessment may therefore consider:

• The date alternative employment began
• Earnings from the new role
• Changes in remuneration
• Whether the new role is permanent or temporary
• Differences in responsibilities
• Changes in benefits
• Potential future earnings

The existence of alternative employment does not by itself determine the amount of any future loss. Its relevance depends on the circumstances and the financial issues being considered.

How Are Different Future Earnings Scenarios Considered?

Future earnings may sometimes be assessed using more than one scenario.

For example, a calculation could consider different assumptions concerning:

1. Continued employment at the pre-loss level
2. Progression to a more senior role
3. Alternative employment at a different earnings level
4. Changes in remuneration over time

Presenting alternative scenarios can show how particular assumptions affect the resulting calculation.

This can also help distinguish the underlying financial evidence from assumptions that are more uncertain.

What About Salary Increases?

Salary increases may be relevant when assessing future earnings, but the appropriate assumption will depend on the evidence.

An expert may consider historical salary increases, contractual arrangements and other available evidence.

For example, evidence of regular salary reviews may provide relevant context. It would not necessarily establish that the same rate of increase would have continued throughout the entire period of future loss.

The calculation should therefore identify the assumptions used rather than presenting an estimated future salary as a certainty.

What About Bonuses and Commission?

Variable remuneration can introduce additional uncertainty into a future earnings calculation.

Where bonuses or commission form part of the claimant's remuneration, an expert may consider historical payments and the terms of the relevant arrangement.

The analysis may need to distinguish between:

• Guaranteed remuneration
• Contractual variable pay
• Discretionary bonuses
• Commission
• One-off payments
• Benefits

Historical bonus or commission payments may provide relevant evidence, but their future continuation may depend on the particular employment arrangement and available evidence.

How Does an Expert Deal With Uncertainty?

Future loss calculations necessarily involve assumptions because the future cannot be established with certainty.

An expert may therefore identify:

• The factual information relied upon
• The assumptions adopted
• The alternative scenarios considered
• The financial effect of different assumptions
• Areas where the available evidence is limited

This approach can make the calculation more transparent and allow the parties and Tribunal to understand how the figures have been reached.

An expert should remain within their area of expertise. Questions concerning the legal basis of a claim or the ultimate determination of liability are matters for the appropriate legal process rather than the financial expert.

What Should Solicitors Consider When Instructing an Expert?

Before instructing an employment loss expert, it can be useful to identify the specific future earnings issue that needs to be addressed.

The instruction may need to explain:

• The period of future loss being considered
• The claimant's employment history
• The earnings information available
• Any relevant career progression evidence
• Details of subsequent employment
• Any disputed assumptions
• The particular calculations required

The expert may also need access to supporting documentation before a calculation can be prepared.

A clear instruction can help define the scope of the financial analysis and distinguish the expert's role from other evidence in the case.

For an overview of the areas in which an employment loss expert may be instructed, see the Employment Loss Expert Services.

When May Specialist Analysis Be Appropriate?

Not every future earnings issue will require specialist expert evidence.

A relatively straightforward claim based on established earnings may require less analysis than a case involving substantial future loss, complex remuneration or disputed career progression.

The relevance of an employment loss expert should therefore be considered in light of the issues in the individual case, the available evidence and any applicable Tribunal directions.

Conclusion

Assessing future career prospects and earnings involves greater uncertainty than calculating established past earnings. Where specialist financial evidence is considered appropriate, an employment loss expert may review employment history, earnings, career progression, remuneration and subsequent employment to develop a structured calculation.

Historical career progression, salary increases and variable remuneration may all provide relevant evidence, but none should automatically be treated as proof of what would have happened in the future.

A careful assessment should distinguish factual evidence from assumptions and make clear how different scenarios affect the calculation. The appropriate approach will depend on the circumstances of the individual case and the scope of the expert's instructions.

For further information about employment loss expert services, see the Employment Loss Expert Services.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information about the assessment of future career prospects and earnings in employment loss claims and is not legal advice. The relevance and treatment of evidence will depend on the circumstances and requirements of the individual case. Last Reviewed: October 2026